I know technically we aren't supposed to let our guard down on hurricanes until November 30th. That's the end of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. But usually by this time in October, except for 2002 and Hurricane Lili, we can breathe a little easier as far as the tropics are concerned.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center aren't breathing easier. They're tracking Hurricane Leslie out in the Atlantic and there's the troublesome area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean that won't go away.  It's that weather system that has me feeling a little uneasy but not frantic, scared, or ready to jump in the car to go get plywood.

Forecasters say this area of disturbed weather will most likely slide across the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. That's where things could get interesting. Conditions early next week in the southwest Gulf will be a little more conducive for tropical systems to strengthen. Right now the system is in a pretty hostile environment so strengthening before next week isn't likely.

The European Model does paint a troublesome picture for the northern Gulf of Mexico by midweek of next week. As of its latest run, that model suggests the system will make a beeline for the Louisiana coast and then veer off toward the east.

We'd like to be very clear on one particular point right hereOne model run does not constitute an official forecast. Use this information for planning purposes only. If you'd like to see some of the other models and their solutions Tropical Tidbits is a great resource for that. 

There are a lot of variables and scenarios that Mother Nature will throw out over the next few days. The system could strengthen, the system could fall apart, the system could be swept away by an approaching frontal system. The bottom line is you and I can't let our guard down all the way until the season has come to an end