Ominous Outlook for East Texas…Severe Storms, Tornados Possible

Quick Capsule

⛈️A Strong Cold Front Will Move Into East Texas on Saturday

⛈️The Chance for Severe Storms is Picking Up Steam

⛈️Damaging Winds, Hail, and Tornadoes Are All Possible

Severe weather outbreaks in the South usually occur most frequently from March through May. Mother Nature seems to be giving us a sneak peek.

Here Comes Another Polar Blast

A strong cold front is expected to move into eastern Texas on Saturday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, an abundant flow of warm, moist air from the Gulf of America (according to Google Maps) should spread across our area.

You know what happens when those two air masses meet...storms, and severe storms are a solid possibility in this case.

How Bad Will It Get?

The Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma has enough confidence in the likelihood of this severe storm outbreak to issue this map:

The yellow-shaded area indicates a region where there is a 15% chance of a severe storm happening within 25 miles of any given point. The brown-shaded area indicates a 30% chance of the same.

Rarely does the Storm Prediction Center have the confidence to include a brown-shaded region on their Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook. Anyone living in the yellow or brown-shaded areas should take this forecast seriously.

The Timing of the Storms and What to Expect

Beginning early Saturday, southerly winds will start picking up with gusts near 25 mph. We will reach into the 70s by Saturday afternoon. This will only add fuel to the fire for the formation of strong to severe storms over the Pineywoods throughout Saturday afternoon and evening.

The cold front should generate a squall line with heavy rain and strong storms, but, a few 'discrete' storms could form ahead of that line.

Any of these cells could reach severe designation with damaging straight-line winds, hail, and tornadoes all in the mix.

When Will We Know More?

The Storm Prediction Center will continue to update and modify the outlook for Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to the possibility of severe storms.

We might see a red-shaded (moderate) area on the map as well as a hatched area indicating the possibility of strong (EF2+) tornadoes.  If this becomes the case, I will issue another update.