Hurricane Center Announces Changes in Tropical Forecasts
Those who live along or near Louisiana's coastline are anxiously watching the calendar. We have approximately two months and a half to get comfortable with the idea that it will soon be hurricane season. The last few hurricane seasons have not been kind to Louisiana, so you can't blame us if we get a little, no a lot, antsy when June 1st approaches. June 1st is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season if you weren't aware.
There is good news on the hurricane front. That news comes from a couple of different areas of the forecast. First, we reported last week that conditions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean were changing and that could mean fewer storms for the Gulf of Mexico in 2023.
The second change that's a lot more certain than the forecast of fewer storms is the change announced earlier this week by the National Hurricane Center. The Hurricane Center will expand its forecast coverage of active storms from five days to seven days. Those who follow big storms in the tropics are familiar with the cone of uncertainty and the line in the middle of that cone. As of May 15th that cone and the potential forecast plots will expand from a five-day outlook to a seven-day outlook.
The administrators of the National Hurricane Center say that advances in long-range tropical forecasts have increased significantly. Therefore the agency will now give those in the potential path of a storm a full seven days to contemplate, consider, and spring into action to protect life and property.
It should still be noted that there will still be some inaccuracies in the seven-day outlook and that storm tracks will have to be adjusted until the system makes landfall or dissipates. Forecasters say the mission of the new forecast product is to simply make residents who might be potentially impacted by a strong storm more weather aware and allow those people more time to prepare for a landfalling tropical cyclone.