Hurricane in the Gulf – Overnight Update , New Track and Itensity Forecast

(KMDL-FM) For the first time in the 2026 Hurricane Season, we have a hurricane. Tropical Storm Isaias evolved into a hurricane late last night and, based on the latest advisory, is continuing to strengthen as it moves over the very warm waters of the central Gulf.

The news for Louisiana is good regarding the path of the storm. We should not only be on the "good side" of the system, but it should be far enough to our east that even wrap-around rain bands won't be an issue. In fact, we'll enjoy a breezy, warm, but less humid weekend.

Hurricane Isaias Will Create Dangerous Conditions in South Louisiana

That, however, reveals a different kind of danger for South Louisiana, a fire danger. If you recall, most of South Louisiana did not get a lot of rainfall with last weekend's weather system, and conditions remain very dry. So, please, pay attention to this advisory.

weather.gov/lch

Further to our east, the outlook is not good at all. A Hurricane Warning is posted for the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. There is also a tropical storm warning posted from east of the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida to the mouth of the Aucilla River in Florida.

Here Is the Latest Forecast Track For Hurricane Isaias

nhc.noaa.gov

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are projecting that the storm will reach its maximum wind speed in about 24 hours. At that time, the system should be centered almost due south of Mobile Bay, Alabama. The max winds at that time are forecast to be 110 mph. That would put the storm's strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale at a very high Category 2 Hurricane.

READ MORE: Probability of a Named Storm Making Landfall in Your Parish

The current forecast guidance does call for some weakening as the system approaches the coastline. There is very high wind shear in the upper atmosphere, and that will inhibit the system from strengthening at the very least. Drier air is also forecast to become entrenched in the system as it moves toward landfall; this will also contribute to a weakening storm system.

Bobby Ware

The latest Tropical Model Runs are all lining up for what looks to be an apparent landfall on what a lot of us call the "Redneck Riviera".  Some evacuations along the coast are already underway as residents prepare for Isaias's arrival sometime Friday night.

READ MORE: FEMA Identifies Six Louisiana Parishes as "Most at Risk" for Hurricanes

The storm should weaken rapidly once it crosses the coastline, and it will continue to move rapidly in a generally north direction. On the current track, the center of the storm's circulation will pass very near Tuscaloosa, Alabama. That will be the site of a big SEC Football game between Alabama and Georgia.  So, that should be interesting.