A Super El Niño Winter Could Bring Rare Snow To The Gulf South
(KMDL-FM) It appears as though two of the greatest "cliches" in all of meteorology are combining to create a snowstorm in the Gulf South. I know it's July, and we're talking heat indices and afternoon storms, but there is increasing evidence that the Super El Niño, which might keep our hurricane season quiet, could be the reason we have more and more pictures like the one you see below.
Could Louisiana Be In for Another Epic Snowstorm This Winter?
If you were in Lafayette and South Louisiana when we had that epic snowstorm, it would be hard to imagine such a unique weather event happening again. But when you break it all down, the ingredients you need for a snowstorm would be readily in place if the Super El Niño phenomenon remains strong through the winter months.
How Could El Niño Mean Another Epic Snowstorm for Louisiana This Winter
To better understand how some of the long-range forecast models are arriving at these conclusions, you have to understand what El Niño and the Polar Vortex actually are. The Polar Vortex is fairly easy to explain. It's a circulation of cold and super cold air that rotates above the North Pole and the South Pole.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, there is the stratospheric polar vortex; closer to the Earth's surface, you have the tropospheric polar vortex. Normally, that circulation of colder air is confined to the area around the poles; however, atmospheric oscillations created by the El Niño phenomenon can cause that circulation to "wobble". That would be the "disrupted" Polar Vortex you see in the graphic above.
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These wobbles allow for tongues of bitterly cold Arctic air to drop further south out of Canada and into the United States. That's a very elementary explanation of how we get those outbreaks of bitter cold air every winter. You can easily see that it's possible to have the right ingredients in the right proportions to create snow not only across the Midwest but the Deep South.
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One model projection seems to suggest that northern and central Louisiana could be in a "snow belt" this winter. Of course, for that to happen, a lot of things have to come together at the same time. That's why we seldom see snowstorms in the Gulf South; we just don't have the right mix of temperature, moisture, and cold air aloft. But when we get it, it can really mess things up.
Granted, there are a lot of moving parts in this scenario. And to be quite honest, the likelihood of another major snow event in South Louisiana seems almost too illogical to even consider. But then again, the last time it snowed almost ten inches along I-10, none of us saw that coming until it was here.
Just remember, Mother Nature plays by her own rules, and if she wants it to snow for Mardi Gras next year, then it will snow. Otherwise it will just be damp and cold. Snow seems like it would be nicer, but if you think folks around here can't drive in the rain, just wait until we freeze a little of that.
If you remember the last big snow, you might also remember some of these events over the past few decades.
30 Lafayette Memories From the Past 30 Years
Gallery Credit: Bruce Mikells