Tropical System Expected to Strengthen, Any Threat for The Gulf?

(KMDL-FM) We are officially on the downhill side of the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. While that is a good reason to breathe easier, it's not a reason enough to let your guard down as far as the tropics are concerned.

We are still certainly in the "heart" of the tropical season, as you can see from the graphic provided by the National Hurricane Center above. It is normal for the tropics to be active this time of year, but that activity does start to show a marked decrease as we get deeper into September and October.

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There is a bit of a "mini peak" in early October, but usually by the time Louisiana residents have pulled out the black iron pots for making gumbo, the weather has cooled off, the water temperatures have cooled off, and the tropics become less active.

Area Of Concern in Atlantic Could Become Tropical Depression This Week

The main area of concern that forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are focusing on is an aggressive tropical wave that rolled off the coast of Africa late last week. This system has been slowly moving westward across the Atlantic, and it has been strengthening.

The forecast is for this system to grow even stronger, and the Hurricane Center has given the storm system an 80% probability of becoming at least a tropical depression by the middle of this week.

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While the timing of any effects this system could have in the coastal United States is still uncertain, we can say with some confidence that this does not look as if it will be a "Gulf Storm".  The majority of model guidance keeps this storm system in the Atlantic. Whether or not it will pose a direct threat to the Eastern Seaboard remains uncertain at this time.

What Is The Tropical Outlook For the Gulf and Caribbean Sea?

Meanwhile, the outlook for the Gulf, as far as the tropics are concerned, isn't that concerning. The Climate Prediction Center suggests that the outlook for tropical formation is between 20% and 40% over the next two weeks.

In looking at some of the tropical model runs over the next two weeks, the Gulf could get quite active, but none of the tropical models suggested anything with "a spin," just leftover convection from some old frontal boundaries. Of course, all we can really do is wait and watch, right?

The Atlantic Hurricane Season goes through November 1st. There have been six named storms so far this season. Many forecast outlets have predicted as many as 19 named storms for this season; let's hope that won't come to fruition. The next name up on the tropical storm's list is Gabrielle.