Hurricane Season to ‘Get Real’ For Louisiana Next Week?

The calendar has flipped over to June in Louisiana and that means a couple of things. Yeah, it's hot and humid in cities such as Lake Charles, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans. It's also a time for summer travel and vacations, usually to the beaches either here in the state or to points east along the Alabama and Florida Gulf Coast.

But regardless of where you're heading or what you're doing in Louisiana over the summertime you always have one thing in the back of your mind, Hurricane Season.

Hurricanes and tropical storms are just part of our way of life in Louisiana. We understand that where we live we are likely to experience the effects of one of Nature's most powerful storms every few years.

In some cases, the year 2020 to be precise, Louisiana experienced five land-falling tropical systems. So the idea of a tropical weather maker just off our coastline isn't new, it's just not what we want to hear about right now.

Hurricane Season officially began on June 1st of this year. As of today, June 10, 2024, the National Hurricane Center is not reporting any signs of tropical development in the Atlantic Basin for the next seven days.

But what about beyond those seven days? Why have two well-respected meteorologists bothered to make mention of a potential system this far down the road?

Well, that's because the tropical models that today's forecasters use are pretty good. Granted, they are not 100% accurate in their ultimate prediction of tropical systems more than a week out but to borrow a phrase from the popular culture, where there is smoke, there is fire.

In this case, the smoke is a large concentration of moisture in the atmosphere perched directly over the ever-warming waters of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. When that happens you can usually expect some kind of tropical disturbance.

Tropical forecast models looking into the week of June 17th are suggesting at the very least an increase in tropical moisture across the Gulf South. For Louisiana, right now that shows up in the forecast as an increased threat of tropical showers. But could this also be a foreboding of something spinning in the Gulf of Mexico? It's just too early to say without any significant degree of accuracy.

The reason we're letting you know now is to make sure that you keep your eyes glancing southward toward the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days just in case. The NOAA Official Hurricane Forecast for 2024 calls for a very busy season and the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are already warm enough to support tropical development. So this "potential threat" is something that needs to be watched.

As of right now, staying informed is all you need to be doing. Should conditions warrant and the forecast change you'll be prepared to take action to protect life and property. We encourage you to check back with us often for the latest on the tropics including any developments that might involve life along Louisiana's coastline.