Those who live along the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, namely Louisiana and Texas just might have more than one very good reason to be thinking ahead to Hurricane Season 2024. The 2023 Hurricane Season was very quiet compared to previous years along the northern Gulf Coast. No named storms made landfall in either Louisiana or Texas even though the 2023 season was the fourth most active for named storms on record.

As far as long-range tropical forecasts go, entities such as Accu-Weather, The National Hurricane Center or NOAA, and the scientist at Colorado State University won't release their preseason forecasts for several weeks there is one forecast outlet that has offered their thoughts on Hurricane Season 2024. If you live in Louisiana or Texas, get ready, if they are correct, it's going to be a bumpy summer.

How Many Hurricanes Will Affect Louisiana and Texas This Summer?

If you can trust the "weather guessers" at the Old Farmer's Almanac, and based on their record you can't discount their suggestions, we could be looking at three different hurricane or tropical storm threats throughout the 2024 Hurricane Season.

The Hurricane Season, according to the National Hurricane Center begins on June 1 and will run through November 30. However, the past several seasons have seen tropical storms or storms with tropical characteristics form before June 1st.

When Will Louisiana and Texas Be at Risk for Hurricanes in 2024?

According to the Old Farmers Almanac, the first tropical threat of 2024 will happen in early July. The OFA forecast suggests July the 4th won't be good for fireworks at places like Galveston, Holly Beach, and the coastal marshes of southeastern Louisiana. The OFA forecast specifically mentions a "hurricane threat" not just a tropical threat so if you're trip to the beach gets washed out, just remember you read that here first.

Notneb via YouTube
Notneb via YouTube
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The second threat for the coastlines of Louisiana and Texas in 2024 will happen just a few weeks later. The Old Farmer's Almanac specifically suggests southwestern Louisiana and the Upper Texas Coast might have a "tropical threat" between July 15th and the 25th.

The third hurricane threat, yes, the OFA used those words again, suggests that as Louisiana and Texas enter the peak of the hurricane season in early September there will be yet another reason to fill up the generators, top off the gas tank in the car, and buy some bug spray for when you have to keep the windows open.

ccmvcd via YouTube
ccmvcd via YouTube
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How Accurate Are These Hurricane Forecasts?

The Old Farmer's Almanac derives its forecasts and weather trends by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions. The publication boasts an 80% overall accuracy rate although they do admit they were off a little bit last year. The OFA says their accuracy was about 70% in 2023.

The publication stops short of giving away their actual process for creating forecasts but I can attest they seem to be very close most of the time. Even when they are predicting climate and weather events more than six to nine months out.

As far as what the other forecast outlets are saying about 2024, we are hearing rumblings that most forecasts will suggest a very active season with tropical activity increasing to about 30% more than normal. But we won't get those early forecasts for a few more months. So, to quote the legendary South Louisiana TV weatherman, the late Floyd Cormier, we'll just have to wait and see what happens. And, so we shall.

Meanwhile, you can work on these skills so we won't have to take care of you during a big storm

11 Common Skills That Every Human Should Know

Gallery Credit: Bruce Mikells

 

 

 

 

 

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