Forecasters Lower Expectations For Hurricane Season
The ancient Inca used to forecast the tropical season based on the shells they would find along the beach. Shells from warm water creatures on the beach meant an active season. If the beaches were covered with shells from animals who preferred a colder water temperature they knew the season wouldn't be as volatile.
Fast forward several thousand years and forecasters are still reading the signs from nature when it comes to guessing about the hurricane season. Meteorologists with the Tropical Weather Project at Colorado State have now revised their forecast for the 2018 Hurricane Season. They now believe the tropical season will produce below average results.
The original prediction was 14 named storms, the new forecasts suggest there will only be 11 storms that will intensify to tropical storm strength and earn a name. The revised forecast also shifts downward the number of hurricanes from three to four and the number of major storms from two to one.
The reason for the more conservative slant to the forecast? Cold water temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean. The colder water temperatures take away the "fuel" needed for big storms to form and strengthen. It also promotes a more stable atmosphere above the water's surface. That means fewer storms and less intensity in those storms.
We all know the old adage, it only takes one, well that still holds true but as of now, it looks as if the chances of the "one" might have been significantly decreased.